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Exercise 1
Choose the correct expression of speculation to complete each sentence.
Example: She ______ have left early -- her coat is gone. (must / could / would)
Answer: She must have left early -- her coat is gone.

Other Ways of Expressing Speculation in English
When we are not completely certain about something, we speculate — we make guesses or express possibilities based on what we think is likely. At C1 level, it is important to move beyond basic modal verbs such as might and could and use a wider range of structures to express speculation with greater precision and sophistication.
In this lesson, you will learn other ways of expressing speculation in English, including verbs, adjectives, adverbs, and fixed phrases. These structures allow you to express degrees of certainty, distance yourself from a claim, and sound more natural in both spoken and written English.
Consider this situation: Your colleague has not arrived at work yet. Here are different ways you might speculate about why:
- She must be stuck in traffic.
- She is likely to have missed the bus.
- Apparently, she had an appointment this morning.
- It seems as though something has come up.
- I would imagine she forgot about the meeting.
All of these sentences express speculation, but they do so in different ways and with different levels of certainty. Let us explore each category in detail.
Category 1: Verbs and Verb Phrases for Speculation
Certain verbs and verb phrases allow speakers to speculate politely and naturally. These are particularly useful in formal and semi-formal contexts.
Seem, Appear, and Look
These verbs suggest that something appears to be true based on evidence, but you are not certain. They allow the speaker to distance themselves from a direct claim.
Patterns:
It seems / appears / looks + as if / as though + clause
Subject + seem / appear + to + infinitive
Subject + seem / appear + to + have + past participle (for past speculation)
- It seems as though the project has been delayed.
- It appears as if nobody informed the team.
- She seems to be struggling with the workload.
- He appears to have made an error in the report.
- It looks as though the deal will fall through.
Tend to Think, Would Imagine, Would Guess, Would Suspect
These phrases use the conditional would to soften a speculation, making it sound like a personal opinion rather than a certain fact. They are very common in spoken English at advanced level.
Pattern:
I would + verb + (that) + clause
- I would imagine that the results will be disappointing.
- I would guess that he changed his mind at the last minute.
- I would suspect there has been a misunderstanding somewhere.
- I would think that she already knows the news.
Assume, Presume, and Suppose
These verbs suggest that you believe something is true based on logic or prior knowledge, but you have not confirmed it. Presume implies slightly more confidence than assume. Suppose is more tentative and informal.
Pattern:
I assume / presume / suppose + (that) + clause
Subject + be + supposed to + infinitive
- I assume the meeting has been rescheduled.
- I presume you have already spoken to the manager.
- I suppose it could be a technical problem.
- He is supposed to be arriving this afternoon. (implying it is expected but not confirmed)
Speculate, Wonder, and Doubt
These verbs directly express the act of speculating or questioning. Doubt expresses negative speculation — you think something is probably not true.
Patterns:
I wonder + if / whether + clause
I doubt + (that) + clause
Analysts / Experts speculate + that + clause
- I wonder whether she is aware of the problem.
- I wonder if they have already left.
- I doubt that he will accept the offer.
- Scientists speculate that the phenomenon is linked to climate change.
| Verb / Phrase | Degree of Certainty | Example |
|---|---|---|
| seem / appear / look | Moderate — evidence-based | It seems as though he has resigned. |
| I would imagine / guess / think | Moderate — personal opinion | I would imagine she is busy. |
| assume / presume | Fairly confident | I presume you know the rules. |
| suppose | Low-moderate — tentative | I suppose it might be true. |
| wonder | Open question — uncertain | I wonder if they are coming. |
| doubt | Negative speculation — probably not | I doubt that will work. |
| speculate | Openly uncertain — used in formal/academic writing | Experts speculate that it may take years. |
Category 2: Adjectives for Expressing Speculation
Adjectives can be used in fixed structures to comment on the likelihood of a situation. These are especially useful in formal writing and presentations.
Likely, Unlikely, Possible, Probable, Conceivable
Patterns:
It is + adjective + (that) + clause
Subject + be + likely / unlikely + to + infinitive
- It is likely that the election will be held in autumn.
- It is unlikely that prices will fall any time soon.
- It is possible that the data has been corrupted.
- It is probable that she already knew about the decision.
- It is conceivable that a solution could be found within weeks.
- The company is unlikely to survive another financial crisis.
- She is likely to have been informed already.
| Adjective | Degree of Certainty | Example |
|---|---|---|
| certain / bound | Very high — near certainty | He is bound to know about it. |
| probable | High — more likely than not | It is probable that she will agree. |
| likely | Moderate-high | It is likely that things will improve. |
| possible | Moderate — 50/50 | It is possible that they moved abroad. |
| conceivable | Low-moderate — could happen | It is conceivable that he was mistaken. |
| unlikely | Low — probably not | It is unlikely that anyone noticed. |
| impossible | None — cannot be true | It is impossible that she was there. |
Category 3: Adverbs for Expressing Speculation
Adverbs are a quick and efficient way to add a speculative tone to a sentence. They modify the entire clause and signal your level of certainty to the listener or reader.
Adverbs of Probability and Speculation
Pattern:
Adverb + clause (at the start)
Subject + adverb + verb (in the middle)
- Presumably, they decided to cancel the event.
- Apparently, the CEO has stepped down.
- Evidently, no one was told in advance.
- Supposedly, the new policy takes effect next month.
- Arguably, this is the most complex issue facing the company.
- She is probably working from home today.
- He must have reportedly left before the announcement.
- Allegedly, the funds were mismanaged.
| Adverb | Meaning / Use | Example |
|---|---|---|
| presumably | You assume something is true based on logic | Presumably, she has the key. |
| apparently | Based on what others say or what seems true | Apparently, the meeting was cancelled. |
| evidently | Based on clear evidence | Evidently, no one knew the plan. |
| supposedly | What people believe, but you are not sure if it is true | Supposedly, the results are reliable. |
| arguably | Open to debate — an opinion presented as likely | Arguably, this is the best solution. |
| allegedly | Claimed but not proven — often used in journalism and law | He allegedly broke the terms of the contract. |
| probably / likely | High probability | She is probably right. |
Category 4: Fixed Phrases and Expressions for Speculation
English also has a range of fixed phrases that express speculation. These are especially common in conversation and are very useful for sounding natural and fluent at C1 level.
Common Fixed Speculative Phrases
- In all likelihood, the decision has already been made. (almost certainly)
- There is every chance that the talks will succeed. (high probability)
- There is a good chance that he misunderstood. (moderate probability)
- There is a chance that the deadline will be extended. (some possibility)
- There is little chance of a quick resolution. (low probability)
- Chances are, she already knows. (informal — probably)
- It stands to reason that the costs will increase. (logical conclusion)
- It would not surprise me if they rejected the proposal. (personal speculation)
- For all I know, he could have resigned already. (you have no idea — anything is possible)
- As far as I can tell, everything is running smoothly. (based on limited information)
| Phrase | Degree of Certainty | Register |
|---|---|---|
| In all likelihood | High | Formal |
| There is every chance that | High | Formal / Semi-formal |
| There is a good chance that | Moderate-high | Semi-formal |
| There is a chance that | Moderate | Neutral |
| It stands to reason that | High — logical | Formal |
| Chances are | Moderate-high | Informal |
| It would not surprise me if | Moderate | Semi-formal / Spoken |
| For all I know | Completely uncertain | Informal / Spoken |
| As far as I can tell | Based on limited evidence | Semi-formal |
Speculating About the Past
Many of the structures above can be adapted to speculate about past events. This is a key C1 skill. To shift speculation into the past, use the perfect infinitive (have + past participle).
Patterns:
seem / appear + to + have + past participle
likely / unlikely + to + have + past participle
I would imagine / guess + (that) + past perfect clause
Presumably / Apparently + past simple or past perfect clause
- She appears to have left the company last year.
- He seems to have made a serious mistake.
- They are likely to have already considered this option.
- I would imagine she had already seen the report before the meeting.
- Presumably, they had already agreed on a plan before the announcement.
- Apparently, no one had been notified in advance.
- It is possible that the data was misinterpreted at some point.
Important Differences and Special Cases
Apparently vs. Evidently vs. Obviously
Apparently means "based on what people say or what seems to be true" — the speaker is not sure and is reporting what they have heard or inferred. It signals distance from the claim.
Evidently means "based on clear evidence that can be seen or understood" — the speaker feels more confident because there is supporting information.
Obviously is not speculative — it means something is clear and undeniable. Do not use obviously to express uncertainty.
- Apparently, the meeting was moved. ✅ (I heard this — not confirmed)
- Evidently, the project ran over budget. ✅ (the evidence shows this)
- Obviously, no one is certain yet. ❌ (if no one is certain, it is not obvious)
Supposedly vs. Allegedly
Supposedly suggests that something is what people claim or believe, but you are doubtful or neutral about it. It is used in everyday speech and writing.
Allegedly is used in legal and journalistic contexts when someone is accused of something but it has not been proven. It should not be used casually.
- The new system is supposedly more efficient. ✅ (people say so — I'm not sure)
- He allegedly accepted a bribe. ✅ (claimed but unproven — formal/legal context)
- The food is allegedly very good here. ❌ (too formal/legal for this context — use apparently or supposedly)
Assume vs. Presume
Both verbs are used to express that you believe something without full proof, but they differ slightly. Presume implies you have some reason or evidence to think something is true. Assume suggests you are taking something for granted without much evidence.
- I presume you've read the report, given that you attended the briefing. (evidence-based)
- I assume there will be refreshments at the event. (no particular evidence — just taking it for granted)
Expressing Speculation with Negative Constructions
Be careful with I doubt and unlikely — these already express negative speculation, so do not add an additional negative word.
- I doubt she will come. ✅
- I doubt she won't come. ❌ (double negative — this would mean you think she will come)
- It is unlikely that the bill will pass. ✅
- It is unlikely that the bill won't pass. ❌
Common Mistakes
❌ It seems as if she knows the answer, isn't it?
✅ It seems as if she knows the answer, doesn't it? — The question tag must match the main verb seems, not the subordinate clause.
❌ She is likely know about it already.
✅ She is likely to know about it already. — After likely, use to + infinitive, not the bare infinitive.
❌ It seems that she left already. (when you want to express past speculation from a present perspective)
✅ She seems to have left already. — Use seem + to + have + past participle to speculate about a past action from the present.
❌ I would imagine that he is leaving yesterday.
✅ I would imagine that he left yesterday. — The tense in the subordinate clause must be grammatically consistent with the time reference.
❌ Presumably, she can't have known about it.
✅ Presumably, she didn't know about it. or ✅ She presumably couldn't have known about it. — Be careful about combining adverbs and negative modal perfect forms; restructure for clarity.
❌ It is supposed that the results will improve.
✅ It is expected / anticipated that the results will improve. — Supposed in this passive construction sounds unnatural in modern English; use expected or anticipated instead.
❌ Allegedly, the restaurant has excellent food.
✅ Apparently, the restaurant has excellent food. — Allegedly is reserved for legal or journalistic claims, not everyday statements.
❌ I would guess it could possibly perhaps be the case.
✅ I would guess it is the case. — Avoid stacking multiple hedging devices in one sentence; choose one strong speculative structure.
Other Ways of Expressing Speculation: Quick Summary
Here is a review of the four main categories for expressing speculation at C1 level:
- Verbs and verb phrases: seem, appear, look as though, I would imagine, assume, presume, suppose, wonder, doubt, speculate
- Adjectives: likely, unlikely, possible, probable, conceivable, bound to, certain to — used in the patterns It is + adjective + that and Subject + be + adjective + to + infinitive
- Adverbs: presumably, apparently, evidently, supposedly, arguably, allegedly, probably — used to modify an entire clause
- Fixed phrases: in all likelihood, there is every chance that, it stands to reason that, chances are, for all I know, as far as I can tell, it would not surprise me if
Remember these key principles:
- To speculate about the past, use to + have + past participle after verbs like seem, appear, be likely.
- Match the register of your speculation to the context: use formal structures in writing and informal phrases in conversation.
- Avoid double negatives with doubt and unlikely.
- Do not stack too many hedging devices in a single sentence.
- Choose apparently or supposedly for everyday contexts, and save allegedly for legal or journalistic situations.
Now practise other ways of expressing speculation in the exercises below.
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